Let’s step away from the “best coffee shop in the world” story for a moment. Time for some philosophy.
People often ask me for advice on opening their own café. And over the years, my answers have gotten shorter, sharper, and more to the point. Here’s how I usually start: Don’t. Don’t open a café. Don’t touch anything tied to hospitality. And definitely don’t get into food service.
But—there are exceptions.
Here’s why. Statistically, depending on the country and conditions, between 97% and 99% of food startups fail within the first two years. Those that make it past that point? Very few survive five years. And the ones that thrive beyond a decade? Almost none. That’s not me being dramatic—that’s just the numbers. Even banks won’t touch a gastro loan unless your company is already five years old. They know the risks.
So yeah—your odds are literally better buying a lottery ticket. Except in this “lottery,” you’ll also be working yourself into the ground, then getting up the next day and doing it again. And again. And again. With plenty of doubts and disappointments along the way.
The reason is simple: the population in a city is pretty stable. But the number of people trying to cash in on food and drink? Always growing. Too many players chasing the same wallets. That’s why the stats are so brutal.
On the flip side—competition breeds quality. The only way to survive is to constantly improve, never stop moving forward, and keep reinventing. That pressure is exactly what makes the best projects shine. And honestly? I love that part. The fight keeps you sharp.
Still, it’s not all doom and gloom. There are a few scenarios where jumping into food and hospitality actually makes sense:
1. You grew up in it.
If you were raised in a professional kitchen, or you’re the child of successful restaurateurs, or you’ve worked every job in a restaurant since you were a teenager—you already know the game. You understand the flow: how it runs, what customers want, where everything comes from and where it all goes. You don’t need my advice. Odds are, you’ll be successful.
2. You’ve got money—and lots of it.
If you’ve never worked in hospitality but you’ve got the capital, and you’re itching to be in the business—go ahead. Just understand that success is expensive. Sometimes very expensive. Double the budget you think you’ll need. Better yet, triple it. And remember: people are everything in this business. And good people are expensive too. Very expensive. If you’re ready for that reality—then maybe, just maybe, you’ll make it.
3. You’re completely obsessed.
This is the fun one, but also the most dangerous. You’re just a die-hard fanatic. Maybe of coffee, maybe of food, maybe of success itself. Fanatics who are also stubborn—sometimes they win. Fanatics without that stubborn streak? They always lose. That’s the line. If you’ve got a little cash (or know where to find it), and if you believe in yourself with the force of ten million percent, and if you’re ready to grind seven days a week, five years straight, no breaks—then yes, you might just end up in that lucky 0.7% who make it past the five-year mark.
But here’s the spoonful of reality: food service, like any business, comes with risk. The money you invest? Assume it’s gone. Forget about it. Wipe it from your mind. That’s the only way you’ll stay clear-headed and make the right decisions. Trust me—that mindset matters. (I’ve got a little story about this—coming soon on video. Link will be here.)
And now you know exactly why Fenster ended up being called the best coffee shop in the world. Twice in a row, as of December 31, 2020.
I had no background in food. No industry connections. And just enough money for one single attempt. Honestly, not even a full attempt—half an attempt. Everything else came down to belief and pure stubbornness. That’s the truth.
As for me—I’ve already had my morning coffee at Fenster. Time to grab my second cup. 🙂
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